The United States’ performance at the 2024 Paris Olympics has been magnificent, as most people expected. Simone Biles and the entire women’s team dazzled viewers with their gold medal performances in the women’s team gymnastics competition. In sports with lesser followings, Lee Kiefer defeated Lauren Scruggs to capture the gold and silver medals in the women’s individual foil competition.
Where the United States has historically performed well is in swimming. Though Katie Ledecky and Bobby Finke delivered record performances in their specialties — the women’s and men’s 1500 meters freestyle, respectively — the American swimmers did not dominate the competition as they have in prior Olympics.
The United States captured 28 medals (including eight golds), both very good numbers, and ahead of the Australians, who won 18 medals and seven golds. A total of 17 Olympic records were smashed during the Games. However, only four world records were eclipsed, with just two for individual races (Pan Zhanle of China in the Men’s 100-meter freestyle and Bobby Finke of the United States in the 1,500-meter freestyle).
The 28 total medals were the lowest number for the Americans since the 2004 Athens Games. The eight golds was also the lowest tally by the American swimmers since the 1956 Melbourne Games, when they won just two golds out of 13 swimming events.
Just how dominant has the United States been in swimming?
In the 2020 Tokyo Games, the United States captured 30 medals (including 11 golds), ahead of the Australians, who won 21 medals and nine golds. A total of six world records and 26 Olympic records were shattered during the Games.
In the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games, the United States captured 33 medals (including 16 golds), ahead of the Australians, who won 10 medals and three golds. A total of eight world records and 15 Olympic records were smashed during the Games.
In the 2012 London Games, the United States captured 31 medals (including 16 golds), ahead of the Australians, who won 10 medals and five golds. A total of nine world records and 16 Olympic records were shattered during the Games.
In the 2008 Beijing Games, the United States captured 31 medals (including 12 golds), ahead of the Australians, who won 20 medals and six golds. A total of 24 world records and 41 Olympic records were shattered during the Games.
The United States swimmers’ performance can be explained by other swimmers around the world gaining on the Americans’ historic superiority. Many of the best international swimmers train in the United States. For example, Léon Marchand, who won four individual golds for France, swam for Arizona State University, where he was coached by Bob Bowman, one of the current swimming coaches for France.
Clearly, training and coaching affect performance in the pool, and international swimmers have embraced such opportunities.
However, the dearth of world-record-setting performances raises the question: Did the design of the Paris pool suppress swimming times?
One issue is that the depth of the Paris pool was around 2.15 meters, less than the 2.5 to 3.0 meters used at the most recent Olympics, though well within the accepted range. The general rule is that the deeper the pool, the less turbulence in the water, which in theory should lead to faster swims and more records being set. However, other factors come into play to determine the speed of a pool.
For example, how the walls are designed, namely with the positioning of the touchpads, may also impact water turbulence, yet another factor that could slow swimmers down.
This phenomenon of playing field design affects performance in many sports. Tennis surfaces (clay versus grass versus hard) favor certain styles of play and athletes more than others. The same idea holds true with golf course design (including the width of fairways as well as the size and level of greens), which affects scores, also favoring some styles of play more than others. It is possible that the same effects can be realized from pool designs and water depth.
Most American swimmers come up through the college system, where times are fast. This means that the pools in which American swimmers train and compete are much faster than what they saw in Paris. This created a natural headwind on times, particularly if they have not been exposed to such shallower pool depth.
Independent of the speed of the Paris pool, American swimmers continued to show their dominance, though not to the same degree as in previous Olympics. International swimmers training in the United States will continue to level the playing field. In future Olympics, the pool design and specifications should also be shared with all countries well before the Games, so all participants could benefit from such information. Indeed, intense competition keeps every swimmer pushing to achieve their personal bests, showcasing excellence that is the hallmark of the Olympics.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.
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