In the frustration around current CTA service and buzz around agency consolidation, the issue that should take center stage — an impending fiscal and resulting service crisis for public transit — needs more urgent attention.
At a recent meeting, the Regional Transportation Authority explained that the projected 2026 $730 million operating deficit could mean a 30% to 40% public transit service cut, with more cuts each year. Reduced service could cause major disruptions for many travelers and the region. For privileged riders like me, it could mean inconvenience and/or increased spending on car and ride-share trips — a bigger carbon footprint. This could cause serious impacts on health due to poor air quality and our environmental future.
For some, the effects could be devastating, with an inability to keep everything from jobs to doctors appointments. With collaborators, we interviewed Far South Side residents and riders last summer. One talked about indirect impacts on the Far South Side from decreased public transit: “We would lose companies, businesses, mom-and-pop businesses, grocery stores. It would be a disaster.” A day care worker explained: “It would really just throw my life into a shamble, really. It would change a lot of stuff, where a lot of big decisions would have to be made. One of them would even probably be working here and having a job.”
These equity needs alone should be enough, as all deserve mobility, vibrant communities and high quality of life. But these impacts matter for the whole region as workforce access is vital to a functioning Chicagoland economy. Fewer day care workers — or rail operators — could have ripple effects in the economy and our lives.
We need to take collective action to solve the fiscal crisis. Our fiscal crisis is not due to our agencies being inefficient with spending. The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) reported that across each mode — CTA rail, CTA bus, paratransit, Metra and Pace — our agencies are spending less than their peers per hour of service. Rather, fare revenue decreases (partially due to workforce changes) are colliding with decades of overinvestment in car infrastructure and underinvestment in public transit at the federal and state levels.
A whole host of direct and indirect private and public actions has fueled a system that prioritizes automobiles. At the federal and state levels, direct spending on highways relative to transit has been approximately 80% to 20% respectively. This improved somewhat with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, but highways still get the lion’s share. Moreover, in large cities, federal dollars for public transit (with some exceptions like COVID relief funds) can only be spent on capital, like rail lines and vehicles, not operating, like labor and fuel costs. Smaller communities can always use federal support for operating.
Illinois could flex more of its federal dollars to support transit (albeit via capital dollars). It has a very important program, the Downstate Operating Assistance Program, that supports up to 65% of eligible costs for downstate agencies. The field is not level for Chicagoland, as the state provides only 17% of operating dollars for transit. This is less than the agencies in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington.
Even within Chicagoland, the field is uneven. The CTA provides more than 80% of trips but receives only 46% of the region’s public transit operating funding. Of course, total ridership merits attention but also so do the demographics of riders. We need to revisit who is mostly likely to need and use transit when we allocate our collective investments. For example, in one round of COVID-19 relief funds distribution, the RTA conducted an important analysis that considered who is most likely to ride, need transit and be in an industry that required commuting. The resulting assessment directed a one-time increase in share of dollars for the CTA.
Better public transit for the region will take renewed funding, political will — including leadership by elected officials — and effective agency executives. It will also take some reforms, such as fare integration and increased service coordination. Current challenges may make dissolving agencies through consolidation appealing, but it’s no silver bullet. While making the case for increased Pace and CTA funding, international transit expert Jarrett Walker cautions against consolidation because each agency serves a very different transit market. The proposed elimination of the CTA also means a loss of influence for Chicago, where public transit riders, as well as Black and Latino residents, are concentrated. Dissolving the agencies risks service disruption without a direct solution to fixing the operator shortage that is the main cause of CTA frequency problems now. Nor would consolidation address the root causes of the crime that deters some riders.
We need to grow the collective financial pie for transit, at the national, state and regional levels, which would benefit us all. Addressing the fiscal cliff is a starting point. Increasing public transit investment beyond it would yield collective equity, environmental and economic benefits for riders and nonriders alike. Yet, growing the pie for everyone should also correct historic and current funding imbalances by mode and equity.
CMAP’s report and RTA’s Transit is the Answer provide a menu of feasible funding solutions to pursue now along with removing the farebox recovery ratio requirement. We next can tackle the challenging goal of the most equitable sources — a progressive state income tax and federal operating dollars.
Kate Lowe is an associate professor of urban planning and policy at the University of Illinois Chicago.
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